Jeff Polhill

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Commentary by Jeff Polhill, January 15, 2009

Several things are happening in the economy, none greater than the anticipation of what Barack Obama’s presidency will mean to an economy that is dropping faster and more erratically than a knuckleball.  We are now less than a week from when we will see a transfer of the presidency from Republican President George Bush to Democratic President-elect Barack Obama.  This week we saw the new U.S. Congress seated and political power firmly in the Democratic hands.

In the first-three months of the U.S. government’s 2009 budget year, the federal deficit is reported to be at $495 billion.  Retail sales in December was the worst in many years, layoffs or unpaid worker days off are announced daily, more retailers are going out of business or closing stores, bankruptcy filings - both business and individual - continue to spiral upward, unemployment compensation filings have skyrocketed, home foreclosures continue to accumulate as Americans lose their jobs and home values plummet and the stock market is still languishing in a bear market.  Consumers aren’t spending and businesses aren’t hiring.  And today it was reported by California government officials that the state will run out of money in late February and is considering delaying tax returns or issuing IOUs!  States are seeing a rapid decline in revenues and increasing deficits, forcing cutbacks in programs and government worker layoffs.

So is there any good news out there?  If you put a lot of miles on your vehicle or are a trucker or a trucking company, gas and diesel prices have dipped deeply from last July’s $4 a gallon or more even with a recent uptick in prices.  But with economic indicators pointing down, and a global recession, the worst in 30 years, what can we expect from the Obama administration and a Democratic-led Congress to get this economy turned around?

Obama’s emphatic message to Congress is get an $800 billion economic stimulus package ready for his signature in January, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently gave a February 15th deadline for a bill to be on the president’s desk.  The remaining $350 billion bailout money is still unspent, with Congress unhappy with how the first $350 billion has been doled out to financial institutions, and is requiring more oversight on how this $350 billion will be spent.  President-elect Obama stated that these funds not be used for financial institution or any business bailout but to help homeowners avoid bankruptcy and obtain home mortgages.

Obama’s stated desire for having an $800 billion economic stimulus package passed by a large majority of both Democrats and Republicans may be going by the way-side as many Democrats are unhappy with the proposed tax cuts and Republicans wary of adding to the projected federal deficit and further alienating the  already disgruntled electorate.  Public opinion poles have shown that the American people are not happy with the original bailout and added taxpayer burden, although since this is not an election year, it may not factor in as much to the ultimate passage of a stimulus package, more to the size.

Peter Orszag, designated head of the Office and Management and Budget told the Senate Budget Committee on Wednesday to expect federal budget deficits to be about 5% of the size of the economy for the next 5-10 years.  What that would mean is deficits in the neighborhood of $750 billion in the next couple years, increasing to $1 trillion a year thereafter.  The $750 billion federal budget deficit he is predicting this year, seems rather conservative what with an almost $500 billion deficit in the first quarter and a stimulus package in the neighborhood of three-quarters of a billion.  There is going to have to be some large cuts in spending somewhere in the budget, which seems unlikely with a Democratic-controlled Congress.  To be fair, though, President Bush and Republican-controlled congresses ran up some huge deficits for most of the Bush administration years.

So hold onto your hats and wallets taxpayers.  No matter how effective or ineffective the final Obama stimulus package will be, you and I will be paying for it for a long, long time.

Who am I?

A transplanted Arizonan, almost a native Arizonan, considering that I have reached my 36^th year in this wonderful desert state.   Originally born and raised Illinois, growing up in Rockford.  I left about one year after graduating from East Rockford HS for the great state of California.  Didn’t make the sunny beaches of SoCAL, but ended up in Sacramento, where my oldest brother was the managing partner in a large law firm.  I guess I was looking for adventure but with a safe haven to fall back on.  Worked and went to a local junior college, where I joined a fraternity and spent more time having fun than hitting the books.  So it was back to boring Illinois and work.  Things were going ok until that dreadful day when I got the letter that Uncle Sam wanted me!  Yep, right in the middle of the Vietnam War.  Do you think I should have hit the books harder and stayed in school?   Anyway, off I went to the Chicago induction center – no, I wasn’t being inducted into any hall of fame – I was off to the Army and many adventures.

From Ft Leonard Wood, MO, to Ft Ord, CA, on to Ft Lewis, WA, to my final destination, Vietnam, by way of a troop carrier with the 4^th Division across the Pacific blue.  We set up base camp in the central highlands and trooped off to areas around and in Cambodia on search and destroy missions.  Lots of helicopter rides to areas that looked alike, hiking up and down mountains and hills that looked alike, in between getting into firefights with North Vietnam regulars.  They were tough little fighters, used to the climate, terrain, ways of Jungle fighting and hardships most of us couldn’t or didn’t want to endure.  They also believed in reuniting the two Vietnam’s and doing whatever it took to succeed.   It become obvious to those of us in the field that only one side had that will to succeed, and politics dictated everything.  While South Vietnam would not have been my first choice for a trip to a foreign country, I was able to spend some time in Taiwan, twice, and meet a lot of guys from around the US, who I wouldn’t have met otherwise and form some close bonds with a few that I carried back to the US.

Back to the good old USA and Rockford for a few years going to school, working, getting married, having a daughter and then moving to Arizona.  Arizona is hot in the summer- always remembering that it is a dry heat at 110 degrees or more, but I am only an hour away by plane from San Diego and the beaches and 2-3 hours from the mountains and cool country in Northern Arizona.  And there is a lot to do in the Phoenix area.  We have art museums, arts and culinary fairs, hiking in the nearby mountains, all the major sports, lots of concerts and places to eat and Arizona State University.

Yes, I finally went back to school and hit the books this time – funny what family obligations will do for your concentration level.  Obtained my Bachelor of Science Degree with a major in Finance from the school of business and entered the world of banking.  I have done everything from collecting bad loans, to bank management and commercial lending.

After about 17 years I changed directions somewhat and did financial consulting and insurance sales for 10 years, then finished my career earlier this year with Wells Fargo Bank.  Thirty-plus years seemed like it was a good time to retire and get out of the rat race.  And I am happy I did.  Check the newspapers, talk shows, financial news about what is happening to banks, mortgage lending, foreclosures on residential real estate and the stock market’s downward spiral over all the bad economic news.  It’s really not a fun time to be working in the financial sector.

I am now devoting time to my new business - helping people pay off their mortgages and other debt in a fraction of the time - ½ to 1/3 the time, using time-tested banking instruments that we all use.  Except that instead of the banks’ winning – collecting lots of interest- people win, save lots of interest, pay off their debt early and gain financial freedom, so they can do the things in their lives that are important to them.   Their money now works for them 24-7.  Being able to really help people get rid of the stress of debt and have financial freedom gives me a ton of satisfaction.

If you are one of the millions of Americans who has debt, concerned about how to eliminate debt, living paycheck to paycheck or just not getting ahead, maybe needing to make retirement plans because you are looking at retirement coming up fast in your rear view mirror and want to be on the path to financial freedom, find out how to become

Who am I?

A transplanted Arizonan, almost a native Arizonan, considering that I have reached my 36^th year in this wonderful desert state.   Originally born and raised Illinois, growing up in Rockford.  I left about one year after graduating from East Rockford HS for the great state of California.  Didn’t make the sunny beaches of SoCAL, but ended up in Sacramento, where my oldest brother was the managing partner in a large law firm.  I guess I was looking for adventure but with a safe haven to fall back on.  Worked and went to a local junior college, where I joined a fraternity and spent more time having fun than hitting the books.  So it was back to boring Illinois and work.  Things were going ok until that dreadful day when I got the letter that Uncle Sam wanted me!  Yep, right in the middle of the Vietnam War.  Do you think I should have hit the books harder and stayed in school?   Anyway, off I went to the Chicago induction center – no, I wasn’t being inducted into any hall of fame – I was off to the Army and many adventures.

From Ft Leonard Wood, MO, to Ft Ord, CA, on to Ft Lewis, WA, to my final destination, Vietnam, by way of a troop carrier with the 4^th Division across the Pacific blue.  We set up base camp in the central highlands and trooped off to areas around and in Cambodia on search and destroy missions.  Lots of helicopter rides to areas that looked alike, hiking up and down mountains and hills that looked alike, in between getting into firefights with North Vietnam regulars.  They were tough little fighters, used to the climate, terrain, ways of Jungle fighting and hardships most of us couldn’t or didn’t want to endure.  They also believed in reuniting the two Vietnam’s and doing whatever it took to succeed.   It become obvious to those of us in the field that only one side had that will to succeed, and politics dictated everything.  While South Vietnam would not have been my first choice for a trip to a foreign country, I was able to spend some time in Taiwan, twice, and meet a lot of guys from around the US, who I wouldn’t have met otherwise and form some close bonds with a few that I carried back to the US.

Back to the good old USA and Rockford for a few years going to school, working, getting married, having a daughter and then moving to Arizona.  Arizona is hot in the summer- always remembering that it is a dry heat at 110 degrees or more, but I am only an hour away by plane from San Diego and the beaches and 2-3 hours from the mountains and cool country in Northern Arizona.  And there is a lot to do in the Phoenix area.  We have art museums, arts and culinary fairs, hiking in the nearby mountains, all the major sports, lots of concerts and places to eat and Arizona State University.

Yes, I finally went back to school and hit the books this time – funny what family obligations will do for your concentration level.  Obtained my Bachelor of Science Degree with a major in Finance from the school of business and entered the world of banking.  I have done everything from collecting bad loans, to bank management and commercial lending.

After about 17 years I changed directions somewhat and did financial consulting and insurance sales for 10 years, then finished my career earlier this year with Wells Fargo Bank.  Thirty-plus years seemed like it was a good time to retire and get out of the rat race.  And I am happy I did.  Check the newspapers, talk shows, financial news about what is happening to banks, mortgage lending, foreclosures on residential real estate and the stock market’s downward spiral over all the bad economic news.  It’s really not a fun time to be working in the financial sector.

I am now devoting time to my new business - helping people pay off their mortgages and other debt in a fraction of the time - ½ to 1/3 the time, using time-tested banking instruments that we all use.  Except that instead of the banks’ winning – collecting lots of interest- people win, save lots of interest, pay off their debt early and gain financial freedom, so they can do the things in their lives that are important to them.   Their money now works for them 24-7.  Being able to really help people get rid of the stress of debt and have financial freedom gives me a ton of satisfaction.

If you are one of the millions of Americans who has debt, concerned about how to eliminate debt, living paycheck to paycheck or just not getting ahead, maybe needing to make retirement plans because you are looking at retirement coming up fast in your rear view mirror and want to be on the path to financial freedom, find out how to become debt free in record time!

Jeff Polhill › Tools — WordPress.

By Jeff Polhill

On Friday President Bush laid out his administration’s bailout to GM and Chrysler.

If your remember, GM and Chrysler had asked - maybe begged is a better term - for $14.3 billion financial bailout to stave off bankruptcies, as GM and Chrysler said they would run out of cash by year-end or shortly after.  Ford said they were OK and had enough cash to sustain operations throughout 2009 but were requesting a $13 billion credit line just-in-case auto sales deteriorated further in 2009.

So on Friday Bush laid out his plan to help GM and Chrysler remain solvent through the first quarter of 2009.  He commented that he did not want to have a potentially disastrous collapse of the automakers weighing on President-elect Barack Obama when he takes office January 20, 2009.

What is interesting about the bailout is that on Thursday of last week Bush and his press secretary had hinted that an “orderly” bankruptcy might be the best way to deal with the worsening financial problems of the automakers.  A Ford Motor Co executive had stated that allowing GM and Chrysler to fail would cause immense problems for Ford also.  He didn’t expand on his statement.  So was the “orderly” bankruptcy something that Bush and his staff really considered as an viable option to a GM bailout and a Chrysler bailout or just a PR move to satisfy his own Republican Party and the majority of Americans who are unhappy with the 700 billion dollar bailout, $335 billion already on the books?  We won’t really know.

What did the White House commit to? $17.4 billion in loans to GM and Chrysler, $3 billion more than what the automakers had requested - an early Christmas present with bonus.  Some rules of the road were laid down for getting these loans.  The automakers need to prove by March 31, 2009 that the initial loans do indeed allow GM and Chrysler to become financially solvent.  There is going to be a loan officer, for want of a better term, to oversee the loans.   Hm, what happened to the “Car Czar” Bush and Congress bandied about? - the great overseer of any bailout monies for the automakers.  “Car Czar” certainly had a better ring to it.  At the least “Car Czar” made it sound as though he or she would have much power and oversight.  And what about requiring the United Auto Workers make wage concessions and cancel the jobs bank in 2009 that Bush and many Republicans were requiring earlier?  Now the requirement is that the United Auto Workers agree to rework contracts by the end of 2009 that put union workers’ pay more in line with non-union auto workers in the U.S. and agree to more flexible job rules. (Note that UAW executives previously said that they willing to make some concessions to help out the ailing automakers but not until the current contracts expire in 2011.)  One of the problems, certainly not the only one - take years of mismanagement for example - that the U.S automakers have in competing with the Japanese automakers is paying laid-off union workers 90-95% of their pay until the current contracts expire ,and paying wages that are considerably higher than what Toyota, Honda and other foreign automakers  pay their American workers.  The terms of the bailout agreement also include cutting executive salaries and bonuses and getting rid of the corporate jets.

So what the White house has given the the automakers is a short-term reprieve, one that Obama’s administration and a Democratically-controlled Congress will have to work out early on, and another burden on the taxpayer if GM, Chrysler and Ford cannot become profitable and weather the economic windstorm expected to continue throughout 2009.

Click here for your bailout.

Excerpt from the East Valley Tribune, December 19, 2008. By Jennifer Loven, The Associated Press

Carmakers anxiously await Bush’s decision.

In what can’t be good news for automakers the Bush administration is looking at “orderly” bankruptcy as a possible way to deal with the desperately ailing U.S. auto industry, the White House said Thursday as carmakers readied more plant closings, and a half million new jobless claims underscored the deteriorating national economy.

With General Motors, Chrysler and the rest of Detroit anxiously awaiting a White House decision on billions of dollars in emergency federal loans, press secretary Dana Perino said it wasn’t simply a choice between government rescue and the disastrous collapse of a major industry. Perino said, “There’s an orderly way to do bankruptcies that provides for more of a soft landing. I think that’s what we would be talking about.”

President Bush spoke of the idea of bankruptcies…without committing to it. “Under normal circumstances, no question bankruptcy court is the best way to work through credit and debt and restructuring,” he said during a speech and question-and-answer session at the American Enterprise Institute. Bush added, “These aren’t normal circumstances. That’s the problem.” Bush also said he hadn’t decided what he would do but didn’t want to leave a mess for Barack Obama.

Perino emphasized there were still several possible approaches to assisting the automakers, including short-term loans from the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Wall Street bailout program.

The Big Three automakers said anew that bankruptcy wasn’t the answer, as did an official of the United Auto Workers who called the idea unworkable and even dangerous.

In other related news Bush fretted that “This is a difficult time for a free-market person. Under ordinary circumstances failed entities should be allowed to fail. I have concluded these are not ordinary circumstances, for a lot of reasons.”

So with more auto plant closings, Chrysler employees taking a 4-week vs the normal 2-week Christmas holiday break, poor U.S. auto sales, tight credit, no help from Congress and now the White House talking about an “orderly” bankruptcy process as a possible solution, this can’t be sitting well with the automakers or the UAW.

Jeff Polhill

For the “Big Three” U.S. automakers, hoping for a quick financial bailout from the White House, no news cannot be good news. On Sunday White House officials said that no announcement was expected Sunday or Monday while President Bush was in Iraq, having a pair of size 10 shoes thrown at him at a press conference. Bush, showing excellent reflexes, managed to avoid getting whacked on the head.

And now it is Tuesday and still no word. The thinking seems to be that the administration is weighing options on how much of a bailout and what are going to be the terms. Senator Bob Corker, Republican-Tennessee, said he spoke with the White House on Sunday. “I don’t think they yet know what they’re going to do,” Corker remarked. Ron Gettelfinger, president of the United Auto Workers said the administration and the union had not held talks. I would think or hope that no money would go out unless the union makes some serious concessions to the automakers. Without these concessions on stopping jobs bank (laid off union workers collect 90-95% of their wages until the labor-automaker contract ends) and reducing employee wages, along with big changes in how the U.S. automakers operate, I do not see how the automakers can sustain operations and suspect they will only be back for another bailout, crying bankruptcy once again next year. But President Bush had earlier said that we could not allow the “Big three” to fall into bankruptcy, which would be devastating to the U.S. economy already in a recession.

So which of the automakers will get a bailout? How much is Bush willing to handout? And will Bush authorize the funds be taken from the $350 billion remaining for the Wall Street bailout? GM and Chrysler say they will be out of cash within a few weeks and will have to file bankruptcy. Ford, who was able earlier this year to obtain cash and feels they will be OK for cash in 2009, wants a just-in-case-things-get-worse credit line.

Lots of questions to be asked and answered. The only real question worth answering is will a bailout work.

December 12, 2008. By Jeff Polhill

So we were told that the $14 billion U.S. automaker bailout plan that was approved by the House of Representatives (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the bailout legislation “tough love”) and agreed to in negotiations with the White House was going to be a harder sell in the Senate where enough Republicans were expected to balk on giving money to the U.S.automakers without major concessions from the autoworkers and creditors.

Well it happened. And who is the culprit? None other than the United Auto Workers union. The Republicans required that for their support, among other things, the union agree to slash wages at a specified date in 2009 to be in line with those of Japanese automakers in America. The “Big Three ” automakers vehicles cost on average $1500 more to produce than the Japanese automakers. The UAW was willing to make the cuts but not until 2011 when the autoworkers contract expires.

So what’s next? It appears at this time that if the union does not capitulate, there will not be the 60 votes needed in the Senate to get the “Big Three” bailout advanced, though a test vote was expected. Senator Cris Dodd, D-Connecticut, said, “In the midst of already deep and troubling economic times, we are about to add to that by walking away.” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, added that he was “terribly disappointed” about the demise of the bipartisan deal. Senator Bob Corker, R-Tennessee, remarked that the two sides “… were about three words away from a deal.” Corker didn’t say what those words were.

Are we to see bankruptcy for General Motors and Chrysler, who have said they will be out of cash by year-end? Will the union come around to the 2009 wage cuts mandate? Will the White House step in to get the negotiations back on track? Or will the Senate and union agree to wage cuts before 2011 but later than what the 2009 Senate is requiring? There are just a lot of if’s.

My view is that bankruptcy may be the best for GM and Chrysler and the taxpayers. Sure it will hurt an already weakened economy and add to more layoffs in the auto industry, suppliers and dealerships. But the truth of it all is that as the U.S automakers are currently structured, they have shown that they cannot compete. In addition, all automakers are experiencing sagging sales. Buyers are hesitant to buy when many families have either experienced a job layoff, reduced wages, have a concern for their jobs, and with restricted bank credit.

GM, Chrysler and Ford (who has sufficient cash for 2009) got themselves into this mess by relying on truck and SUV sales, which they couldn’t move when gas prices went to $4 per gallon, refused to retool their factories to make vehicles that could compete with Honda and Toyota, agreed to contracts with the UAW that allowed laid-off workers to receive 90-95 percent of their pay through the end of the contracts and paid wages and benefits that caused their vehicle costs to be non-competitive.

In the short term, bankruptcy and job losses will be tough for economy to swallow, and for those that lose their jobs. But if the automakers can restructure and become profitable and competitive, then in the long term this is best for the economy and the taxpayer.

And in a free market economy, which we have, if you can’t compete, you either figure out how to or you perish.

Excerpt from the East Valley Tribune newspaper December 9, 2008. By Julie Hirschfeld Davis, The Associated Press

Congressional Democrats and the White House worked to resolve their last disputes Monday over terms of a $15 billion bailout for U.S. automakers - complete with a “car czar” to oversee the industry’s reinvention of itself - that’s expected to come to a vote as early as Wednesday.

Top democrats gave the White House their proposal, however the Bush administration gave it a cool response, saying the measure didn’t do enough to ensure that only viable companies would get long term federal help. Negotiators were working into Monday night to resolve differences. Dana Perino, the White House press secretary, said, “We’ve made a lot of progress in recent days… We’ll continue to work with members on both sides of the aisle to achieve legislation that protects the good faith investment by taxpayers.” President Bush said it was “hard to tell” if a deal was imminent because definite conditions had to be met. In an interview with ABC’s “Nightline” President Bush stated, “These are important companies … we just don’t want to put good money after bad.”

The crux of the White House’s concern is that there may not be enough clear, immediate protection for taxpayers if a company is not meeting its own promises for long-term viability after review by the president’s overseer. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat-California, remarked that restructuring would require tough concessions from management, labor, creditors and others. Even if White House and the democratic leaders do reach agreement on the auto bailout, Senator Carl Levin, Democrat-Michigan, said that getting roughly 15 Republicans needed to support the plan was an uphill battle.

Here I am going to link to Debt To Financial Freedom.com.Debt To Financial Freedom.

Here I am going to link to United First Financial.